Probability

L'Ouverture Perkins William S. Carter Elementary School
5740 S. Michigan
Chicago IL 60627
(312)535-0860

Objectives:

Grade Level: Intermediate elementary (4-6)

a* The student will be able to determine the relationship between equally
likely events and their favorable results.

b* The student will be able to graph their results.

c* The student will be able to determine the degree of probability of event.

d* The student will be able to determine if an event is equally likely or not
equally likely to happen.

Materials Needed:

Probability board, toothpicks, marbles, toothpick board, cards, dice, cowrie
shells, spinners, number cube, coins, peanut butter, jelly, bread, blue and
green cubes, unequal and equal spinners.

Strategy:

1. (c*) The student will toss 3 coins 60 times to determine the possible
combinations of 3 coin families.

2. (a*) The student will determine experimental probability of an experiment
by removing 2 cubes from a mixed bag of blue and green cubes. The
student will then tally the results and compare the experimental
probability with the actual probability.

3. (d*) The student will determine the likelihood of selecting a peanut
butter, jelly or peanut butter and jelly sandwich from a bag.

4. (d*) The student will determine the likelihood of selecting any playing
card from a hat that is mixed with at least one folded card.

5. (a*) The student will determine the number of times a number cube results
in 1-2 versus 3-6.

6. (b*) The student will toss darts at a dart board, record the results and
graph the results.

7. (b*) The student will observe a Gauss Curve being formed by marbles being
dropped through a probability board.

Performance Assessment:

The student will be able to determine if an outcome is equally likely or not equally likely from a: tossing a coin, b: rolling a number cube with faces
numbered 1-6, c: spinning an unequal spinner, d: spinning an equal spinner,
e: pick a card from cards set up in a pattern: 1,2,1,2, f: pick a card from
cards set up in a pattern: 1,2,3,3,4,5.

The student will be able to orally explain if the probability of an event
happening is 0,1 or between 0 and 1 for the following questions:

1. You toss a nickel and it will land tails up.
2. You will drive a car to school tomorrow.
3. It will snow tomorrow.
4. It will snow sometime during the winter in Chicago.
5. June will follow May.

Students will be able to graph the scores of a test that result in a Gauss or
bell curve.

example: scores = 10, 13, 22, 26, 29, 34, 43, 56, 66, 74, 82, 95, 100
# students 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,


Conclusions:

Exploring the field of probability will help students develop their ability to
understand the relationship between equally likely events and the actual
results. Understanding this relationship will form the structure for a higher
level of logical thinking.

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