Probability

L'Ouverture Perkins            William S. Carter Elementary School
                               5740 S. Michigan
                               Chicago IL 60627
                               (312)535-0860

Objectives:

Grade Level: Intermediate elementary (4-6)

  a*  The student will be able to determine the relationship between equally 
        likely events and their favorable results. 

  b*  The student will be able to graph their results.

  c*  The student will be able to determine the degree of probability of event.

  d*  The student will be able to determine if an event is equally likely or not 
        equally likely to happen.
 
Materials Needed:                   

Probability board, toothpicks, marbles, toothpick board, cards, dice, cowrie 
shells, spinners, number cube, coins, peanut butter, jelly, bread, blue and 
green cubes, unequal and equal spinners. 
 
Strategy: 

1. (c*)    The student will toss 3 coins 60 times to determine the possible
             combinations of 3 coin families.

2. (a*)    The student will determine experimental probability of an experiment 
             by removing 2 cubes from a mixed bag of blue and green cubes. The 
             student will then tally the results and compare the experimental 
             probability with the actual probability. 

3. (d*)    The student will determine the likelihood of selecting a peanut 
             butter, jelly or peanut butter and jelly sandwich from a bag. 

4. (d*)    The student will determine the likelihood of selecting any playing 
             card from a hat that is mixed with at least one folded card. 

5. (a*)    The student will determine the number of times a number cube results 
             in 1-2 versus 3-6. 

6. (b*)    The student will toss darts at a dart board, record the results and 
             graph the results. 

7. (b*)    The student will observe a Gauss Curve being formed by marbles being 
             dropped through a probability board. 

Performance Assessment:

The student will be able to determine if an outcome is equally likely or not 
equally likely from a: tossing a coin, b: rolling a number cube with faces 
numbered 1-6, c: spinning an unequal spinner, d: spinning an equal spinner, 
e: pick a card from cards set up in a pattern: 1,2,1,2, f: pick a card from 
cards set up in a pattern: 1,2,3,3,4,5. 

The student will be able to orally explain if the probability of an event 
happening is 0,1 or between 0 and 1 for the following questions: 

1. You toss a nickel and it will land tails up.
2. You will drive a car to school tomorrow.
3. It will snow tomorrow.
4. It will snow sometime during the winter in Chicago.
5. June will follow May.

Students will be able to graph the scores of a test that result in a Gauss or 
bell curve.

example: scores   =      10, 13, 22, 26, 29, 34, 43, 56, 66, 74, 82, 95, 100
         # students       1,  2,  3,  4,  5,  6,  7,  6,  5,  4,  3,  2,   1,


Conclusions:

Exploring the field of probability will help students develop their ability to 
understand the relationship between equally likely events and the actual 
results.  Understanding this relationship will form the structure for a higher 
level of logical thinking.